I've been betting on the Kentucky Derby for years.
Going back to Canonero II in 1971, I've had my share of winners, including more recent ones like Go For Gin (1994), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Funny Cide (2003), but I've had plenty of losers, too, and even more coulda, woulda, shouldas — Genuine Risk (1980) and Ferdinand (1986) coming most immediately to mind.
Because of all the hype and the prestige that goes with winning it, plus the fact that the three year old thoroughbreds are running a mile and a quarter for the first time, the Derby has become the hardest race to handicap, hands down. Complicating the handicapping in the last 25 years is the number of multiple entries by individual trainers and the move more recently not to allow them coupled entries for betting, which in the latter case means no more accidental tickets cashed like happened to me when I backed Editor's Note in 1996 and still cashed because his coupled stablemate Grindstone won.
One rule of betting I usually follow, although there are always exceptions, is to never bet against an undefeated horse in the Derby, which made it fairly easy to pick Smarty Jones (2004) and Barbaro (2006). That rule will be tested Saturday, however, when Big Brown goes to the post as an undefeated favorite in the 134th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
It's hard to bet on any horse that comes into the Derby with just three lifetime races and only two races as a three-year-old. They seldom win. Last year, Curlin was in a similar situation, and he didn't make it, although he did go on to take the Preakness and the Breeders Cup Championship and become Horse of the Year. I wouldn't bet on Curlin because of his inexperience and the winner, Street Sense, was the logical choice, but I had a hunch Curlin would take the Preakness.
Big Brown's situation is further compromised by his post position 20, from which no horse has won since Clyde Van Deusen in 1929, which for those keeping score was 79 years ago. I'm as big a believer in the law of averages as anyone, but when it comes to gambling, such beliefs usually end up getting you broke. Then again, so does trying to knock down the chalk.
I watched Big Brown's Florida Derby victory, and it was certainly impressive. Having Kent Desormeaux in the Irons Saturday is certainly a plus. There's nobody better in a classic race.
I'm sure plenty of people will argue that this field is so bereft of real talent that Big Brown will be able to overcome the post position and history to win. But I remain unconvinced.
Which raises the obvious: If not Big Brown, then who?
Back in 1988, I watched Winning Colors break on top and go gate to wire to become the last filly to win the Derby. Overlooked in the excitement of trainer D. Wayne Lucas' first of four Derby wins was the slip and near fall at the gate by Risen Star, who would come back to demolish Winning Colors and the fields in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, becoming the only offspring of the immortal Secretariat to win a Triple Crown race.
Risen Star's trainer and co-owner Louie Roussel III is back this year with a son of Cherokee Run, fresh off a victory in the Illinois Derby, which most Harford County racing fans will remember was the prep used by War Emblem to win the Derby in 2002. Somebody needs to write a book about Roussel, a real character who's been up, down, up, down and now up again.
My pick Saturday is the appropriately named Recapturetheglory, who'll provide Roussel with that glory he felt he should have had on the first Saturday in May 20 years ago.
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